Published in Ocean Engineering, we present a new concept that simplifies scour prediction around the monopile foundations supporting wind turbines. Over time, powerful underwater waves and currents erode the seabed around these massive pillars. Instead of relying on complex, in-situ underwater flow velocity measurements that are rarely available in the open sea, our new approach uses what we call "synthetic effective flow work" (W*synth).
The Basic Idea:
Think of it like predicting how much a hill will erode during stormy weather without needing a sensor to measure every single gust of wind. Instead, you calculate the overall "work" done on the ground using easily available data like general wind speeds and rain duration.
In the marine environment, we take standard, easily documented parameters - like wave height, wave period, and average current velocity - and generate a customized mathematical simulation of the flow. By translating these conditions into a single measurement of cumulative hydraulic energy, we can now predict both final seabed erosion and its development over time with much higher accuracy. Tested against both large-scale wave tank experiments in Hannover and real-world field data from the Gunfleet Sands offshore wind farm, our application-friendly model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. It’s a major step forward for making marine infrastructure more resilient, sustainable, and safer - proving that sometimes, the best solutions are the most straightforward ones.
Read our full paper here:
Hoballah Jalloul, M., Satari, R., Schendel, A., Welzel, M., Kerpen, N. B., Neuweiler, I., & Schlurmann, T. (2026). Adapting the effective flow work method for monopile scour estimation under combined wave-current loading. Ocean Engineering, 362(126442), 126442. doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.126442
